I didn’t know what variance was two hours ago, but now I’m all in on variance. I’m just going to be shouting variance every time someone brings up the MLB season this year. The loudest in the room is always the smartest so if I just shouted VARIANCE at the top of my lungs until I drowned everyone else out, people would think I know what I’m talking about. What is variance?
Meriam Webster decribes it as:
And the guys at FanGraphs explain the nerd shit way better than I ever could.
The 60-game season is anything but familiar. MLB’s regional schedule has emerged victorious, with teams primarily playing their own divisions while also facing off against the corresponding geography-based division in the other league instead of their normal out-of-division games. Teams will play 10 games against each of their divisional rivals (40 total) and four games against each of the corresponding divisional teams (20 games total). The standings will work as they normally do, just with the odd twist of many of the teams that will compete in the Wild Card races not playing each other during the regular season. The designated hitter rule is universal for the rest of the 2020 season (and likely for the rest of baseball’s existence as a sport).
Here’s pre-season projections from FanGraphs if there would’ve been a 162 game season:
Now here’s the 60 game season projections with some variance and volatility from a shortened season factored in. Obviously, this doesn’t factor in injuries because that’s impossible. Players on the 60 day DL will effectively have season ending injuries as well as anyone who tests positive for Corona will be out at least 14 days. If you ask me that just adds to the legend of variance.
The Yankees’ World Series title hopes drop 4% during a 60 game season while the Phillies, Padres, Brewers, Indians jump up a full percentage point.
Is it a significant jump? Nope. But if anything I know about science (reading two FanGraphs articles) is a full percentage point jump might as well 100 percentage points. There will be a surprising team that makes a run this season. The Nationals were 19-31 in their first 50 games last year. I’m taking strong bullpens and teams with strong minor league teams since teams can have up to 50 players to pull from in case of injury/sickness/etc. Padres +4600, Brewers +3500, Rays +1700, Twins +1600.
If you’re not talking about variance in 2020 are you even a sports gambler? It’s the “Flatten the Curve” of July and the rest of summer. I understand if you still bet the house on the Yankees because Judge, Paxton, and Hicks are fully healthy now. But don’t tell me all you can’t think about in the back of your mind all season is variance.
Live look at Variance fucking up the entire MLB sports gambling landscape.